COP29 is history. Where does it leave us?

To learn more, revisit our full coverage from COP29.

In the early hours of Sunday morning, countries finally agreed a long-awaited deal on climate finance at COP29, albeit one that left all parties with a bitter taste in the mouth.

Global South countries had showed up in Baku demanding an annual sum of USD 1.3 trillion – a sum that experts say covers just a fraction of what’s needed to combat and adapt to the climate crisis.

Instead, more than 30 hours after the scheduled end of the summit, they were forced to accept a final offer of just USD 300 billion per year by 2035.

So, where does this deal leave us – and just how much work is there left to do at COP30 in Brazil next year?

What happened in the buildup to the COP29 deal?

Let’s start with a quick recap.

As our preview article explained, some of the key topics on the COP29 agenda included a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) for climate finance, loss and damage and carbon markets.

The summit also aimed to kick off the ‘UAE dialogue’ – a discussion on how to implement outcomes from the first Global Stocktake released at COP28 – as well as continue existing work programs on mitigation, adaptation and just transition.

Aside from building on previous UN climate conferences, COP29 also forms the centerpiece of a trifecta of UN conferences at the tail end of 2024, starting with the UN Biodiversity Conference (COP16) in October and ending with the UNCCD COP16 desertification conference in December.

But Donald Trump’s U.S. election win meant this year’s climate talks were hamstrung before they had even started. The returning president has pledged to once again withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, and his victory no doubt undermined the negotiations before he even took office.

Analysts have suggested that without the U.S.’s participation, other Global North countries were limited in the amount of finance they could offer, while Global South countries were keen to agree a deal before Trump takes office.

Still, as we covered in our live blog, COP29 got off to a relatively strong start with a deal on carbon markets agreed on day one, wrapping up nine years of negotiations on Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement.

This was followed by the U.K. announcing its updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) on day two, pledging an ambitious 81-percent reduction in emissions by 2035 from 1990 levels.

But the summit soon soured as Argentina sent its negotiating team home on day three, while France semi-boycotted the talks after a diplomatic spat with hosts Azerbaijan.

There was little progress to report over the next week. Global North countries kept their cards close to their chests even as it was leaked that the EU would be offering just USD 200–300 billion a year in climate finance – a figure that would later prove entirely accurate.

On Thursday, 21 November – which should have been the penultimate day of the negotiations – the Azerbaijani COP presidency released a draft text that simply placed an ‘X’ where the proposed finance figure should have been.

This text was roundly rejected by both rich and poor countries alike, with Saudi Arabia – who will host next month’s UNCCD COP16 – declaring its opposition to any text covering fossil fuels at this COP. The Saudi delegates were later also caught editing the just transition text accordingly.

It wasn’t until Friday afternoon, hours before COP29 should’ve been wrapped up, that the presidency released a new draft text with actual numbers on climate finance – but offering Global South countries with just USD 250 billion a year by 2035.

After this text was again rejected, Global North countries convened an emergency meeting on Saturday morning, where they agreed to raise their offer to USD 300 billion per year.

The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) walked out of the finance negotiations that afternoon, claiming that they weren’t being listened to, but soon returned.

The final text was adopted around 3 AM on Sunday morning as the COP president brought down the gavel on the negotiations, ignoring objections from India and Nigeria, and prompting angry reactions from Global South countries and civil society alike.

What the COP29 text says

There were two major deals struck at COP29: one on climate finance, and another on carbon markets.

The final text on climate finance “decides to set a goal, with developed country Parties taking the lead, of at least USD 300 billion per year by 2035 for developing country Parties for climate action.”

It says that this funding should be drawn “from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources,” without specifying a breakdown.

In a nod to China and the Gulf states, which are still officially classified as developing countries, it “encourages developing country Parties to make contributions on a voluntary basis.”

The text also “calls on all actors to work together to enable the scaling up of financing to developing country Parties for climate action from all public and private sources to at least USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035.”

Notably, the agreed NCQG doesn’t cover loss and damage. While it “acknowledges” the cost of climate loss and damage in Global South countries, the text makes no mention of the Loss and Damage Fund approved at COP28.

The text on carbon markets lays out rules on how countries can create and trade carbon credits under article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement.

While carbon credits have been voluntarily bought and sold by the private sector for decades, countries had long been deadlocked on how governments should use them to meet their climate targets – until now.

That means as early as next year, high-emitting countries in the Global North could start buying credits from Global South countries to offset their own emissions, and these would count towards their NDCs.

What wasn’t agreed at COP29?

The text on the UAE dialogue and Global Stocktake outcomes was rejected, with many countries complaining that it had been so watered down that it was essentially backsliding on what was agreed at COP28. The topic will be brought up again for discussion at COP30.

Countries also failed to reach consensus on mitigation, with disagreements over the inclusion of NDCs and references to fossil fuels. The final text simply puts off further discussions until the next round of UN climate talks in Bonn, Germany, next June.

As for adaptation, countries agreed some technical details related to the global goal for adaptation. However, national adaptation plans will not be discussed until the Bonn talks next year, with the aim of agreeing a deal at COP30.

The just transition work program was put on the backburner for much of the summit, and the text was rejected after much disagreement.

The world reacts

A paltry sum. An insult. A disaster. A death sentence. A slap in the face.

These were just a few of the words used by country delegates and civil society groups to describe the deal on climate finance that was pushed through by the Azerbaijani COP presidency despite multiple objections.

Global South countries have left COP29 with an offer worth USD 1 trillion a year less than what they had hoped for, and just a fraction of the USD 5–7 trillion they need to achieve their NDCs by 2050.

And as economists have pointed out, the USD 300 billion sum doesn’t account for inflation, meaning it’s worth much less in real terms than the “tripling” that the UNFCCC claims.

“This deal is a huge disappointment for every advocate and practitioner from the Global South,” says Sunday Geofrey, coordinator of SUHUCAM and GLFx Yaoundé in Cameroon.

“Global North countries have not demonstrated the goodwill and leadership we expected to see at COP29. The continuous underfunding of climate action simply means that people on the front line of climate change will continue to lose their lives and livelihoods. Sadly, these are people who contributed the least to the climate crisis.”

“Funding should support grassroots Indigenous initiatives that are on the front line of defending nature, repairing historical damage and strengthening the autonomy of these communities,” says Isabel Prestes Fonseca, environmental director of the Instituto Zág and GLFx Zág Xokleng in Brazil, which won a Gender-Just Climate Solutions Award at COP29.

“Their inclusion guarantees climate policies that are fairer, more effective and more aligned with sustainability. But that’s not what’s happening at the COP – it’s become a big stage for negotiating what’s left of nature.”

While campaigners had argued that “no deal is better than a bad deal,” the stakes were clearly too high for Global South countries to simply walk away – especially with the U.S. gearing up for a second Trump presidency.

Global North countries, for their part, criticized countries like Saudi Arabia for obstructing the negotiations and erasing any reference to last year’s agreement to “transition away” from fossil fuels.

What can we expect at COP30?

Next year, the UN Climate Change Conference moves to Belém in the heart of the Brazilian Amazon, and the hosts will have their work cut out after COP29’s disappointing deal.

Brazil was certainly keen to make its presence felt in Baku, sending over 1,900 delegates to COP29, second only to hosts Azerbaijan.

The country also announced its new NDC ahead of the conference, which includes a pledge to reduce emissions by 59 to 67 percent by 2035 from 2005 levels, though advocacy group Observatório do Clima says that still isn’t enough to keep global warming under 1.5 degrees.

And at the G20 summit in Rio, which overlapped with COP29, Brazil announced a new initiative with the UN and UNESCO to tackle climate disinformation.

So, it’s clear that Brazil wants to show the world that it’s taking the climate crisis seriously, and it’s making a bold statement by hosting the world’s biggest climate event in the Amazon despite the logistical challenges.

“I think Brazil hosting COP30 will be very important to bring attention to some of the issues of forest conservation and land use,” says Ane Alencar, science director of IPAM.

“But we cannot lose the point that we need to reduce fossil fuel consumption. COP30 is going to be the COP in the forest, but it also needs to be a COP to talk about other issues, including fossil fuels.”

Unlike Azerbaijan, whose president has called oil and gas a “gift from God,” Brazil’s climate envoy has said that she won’t “shy away” from pushing for a fossil fuel phaseout and has also encouraged the EU to step up its net zero target.

Still, it remains to be seen how Brazil will juggle this role with being Latin America’s biggest oil producer, and COP29’s weak deal means countries will have to raise their game significantly next year to maintain any hope of keeping the Paris Agreement goals alive.

“At COP30, I expect to see countries with very high ambitions to fight climate change, because this is something that needs to be collective,” says Alencar.

“We all have to work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help countries that are facing the worst impacts.”