The most important climate event of 2025 will soon be upon us: the 2025 UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) will be held in Belém, the capital of the Brazilian state of Pará, from 10–21 November.

The Conference of the Parties (COP) is an annual conference organized by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It gathers representatives of all UN member states to hammer out collective goals to tackle the climate crisis, present individual countries’ commitments and report on their progress.

This year marks the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, in which all countries agreed to each do their part to limit global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

But has the world done enough in the past decade – and will this year’s COP finally see countries come to an agreement that will deliver the necessary climate action that’s been lacking all this time?

What happened at COP29 and SB62?

Last year’s COP29 was held in Baku, Azerbaijan. Despite a landmark deal on carbon markets, the summit was widely seen as a flop due to its watered-down agreement on climate finance and no further progress to phase out fossil fuels.

The UN also held its SB62 climate meetings in Bonn, Germany, in June. While these talks were meant to pave the way for COP30, they also saw limited progress on most fronts, although civil society groups did successfully push for a more inclusive text on just transition.

This means there’s a lot riding on the Belém talks this November to kickstart momentum again.

What can we expect on climate finance at COP30?

There is still a massive gap between wealthy countries that have contributed disproportionately to the climate crisis and less affluent countries that are particularly vulnerable to its impacts – and lack the resources to adapt.

At COP29, low- and medium-income countries demanded USD 1.3 trillion in annual climate finance from rich countries. Ultimately, however, they were forced to accept a figure of just USD 300 billion per year by 2035.

While nowhere near sufficient, this sum could be the starting point for a more ambitious deal in Belém.

After all, last year’s agreement also called for all countries to “work together” to reach the USD 1.3 trillion funding target by 2035. Global South countries will be pushing hard to achieve this figure.

Will there be any progress on phasing out fossil fuels?

While money will likely be a major point of negotiation at COP30, fossil fuels are also expected to be a top item on the agenda.

The COP28 negotiations in 2023 saw a breakthrough as countries agreed to shift away from fossil fuels and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. They also agreed to triple renewable energy capacity and double average energy efficiency rates by 2030.

Since then, little progress has been made in actually implementing this. But at SB62, Brazil’s environment minister, Marina Silva, suggested a possible roadmap to phase out fossil fuels.

Adopting such a roadmap would be a major achievement for COP30. That said, it will arguably be even more important for governments to commit to ambitious energy transition measures as part of their updated climate plans.

What about climate adaptation?

Climate adaptation is also likely to feature as a topic of discussion.

While the majority of climate financing has traditionally gone toward climate mitigation, the devastating impacts of our warming planet are already being felt around the world, and humanity has no choice but to adapt.

At COP28, countries agreed to the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience, which aims to achieve a global goal for adaptation under the Paris Agreement.

The framework established a two-year work program – until COP30 – to develop measurable indicators of progress toward climate adaptation targets.

Less affluent countries, however, will need funding to implement adaptation measures.

At COP26 in 2021, rich countries had agreed to double their financing for climate adaptation projects in the Global South to at least USD 40 billion per year by 2025.

According to an OECD report, this goal appeared on track to be met as of 2022. To keep the momentum going, some governments and civil society groups are calling for a post-2025 adaptation finance goal to be agreed at COP30.

How much progress have we made since the Paris Agreement?

COP30 will also be an opportunity to look back at the progress made in the 10 years since the Paris Agreement.

Experts say the world is nowhere near achieving its target of limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as agreed in Paris.

In fact, the past 10 years have been the 10 warmest years on record, and 2024 was the first year to exceed 1.5 degrees outright.

This year, countries are also required to submit a new round of national climate strategies, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

However, nearly every country missed the February deadline for submitting their new NDCs, and most still have not done so at the time of writing.

This lack of climate ambition is also reflected in cuts to foreign development aid by the U.S. and several European countries, which is likely to affect climate financing to countries in the Global South.

Among rich countries, the U.S. has planned the largest cuts to its foreign aid budget, slashing it from USD 62 billion in 2024 to a projected USD 28 billion in 2026.

What impact will Brazil have as COP30 host?

As global momentum backslides, Brazil is trying to position itself as a climate leader by hosting this year’s COP in Belém, a city located in the Amazon rainforest.

Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has sought to use COP30 as an opportunity to promote the country’s efforts to protect the Amazon.

Along with 11 other countries, Brazil is set to formally launch a forest protection fund – the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) – at COP30.

This could also create an opportunity to link the climate and biodiversity movements, as well as allow for more interaction between delegates and Indigenous Peoples.

The Brazilian government says that a record 3,000 Indigenous participants will attend COP30, with 1,000 expected to participate in negotiations. It will also advocate for Indigenous Peoples to receive 20 percent of the upcoming TFFF.

Brazil has also sought to raise global ambitions by reframing the Paris Agreement’s global stocktake – which observes gaps and progress in countries’ climate efforts – as a ‘global NDC.’

However, it remains to be seen how this reframing could affect countries’ individual NDCs or global negotiations over matters like climate financing.

Lastly, Brazil’s decision to host COP30 in Belém has also drawn criticism due to the city’s shortage of accommodation, leading to extortionate prices that could affect inclusivity. Some countries are even considering skipping COP30 altogether due to the cost of attending.

How will the U.S.’s absence affect COP30?

The U.S. will be noticeably absent from the talks in Belém.

Upon returning to the White House in January, Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement for the second time, meaning there will be no official delegation from the world’s second-largest emitter of carbon dioxide.

Some experts fear this could lower the pressure on other rich countries to take decisive action.

Others say it could also provide an opening for China to become a global leader on the climate crisis, whose mammoth investments in renewable energy offer a stark contrast to the U.S.’s doubling down on fossil fuel extraction.

Could the ICJ climate ruling affect COP30?

Another factor that could influence the negotiations is an advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in July. In it, the court stated that countries have a legal obligation to action to protect the world’s climate system.

Advisory opinions are not legally binding, and so it remains unclear how this could affect the outcome of COP30.

However, it does affirm that members to the Paris Agreement – which is almost every country on Earth – must submit NDCs that are compatible with the 1.5-degree target.